http://www.eumetcal.org/resources/ukmeteocal/temp/msgcal/www/english/msg/ver_categ_forec/uos2/uos2_ko4.htm
| FCST yes | FCST no | Total | ||
| OBS yes | hits | misses | observed yes | |
| OBS no | false alarms | correct negatives | observed no | |
| Total | forecast yes | forecast no | total |
Root mean square error
Answers the question: What is the magnitude of the forecast errors?
Range: 0 to infinity. Perfect score: 0.
Equitable threat score
where
Answers the question: How well did the forecast occurrence of events correspond to the actual (observed) occurrence of events?
Range: -1/3 to 1, 0 indicates no skill. Perfect score: 1.
Bias score
Answers the question: How does the forecast frequency of events compare to the actual (observed) frequency of events?
Range: 0 to infinity. Perfect score: 1.
Brier score
Answers the question: What is the magnitude of the probability forecast errors?
Range: 0 to 1. Perfect score: 0.
Brier skill score
Answers the question: What is the relative skill of the probabilistic forecast over that of climatology, in terms of predicting whether or not an event occurred?
Range: minus infinity to 1, 0 indicates no skill when compared to the reference forecast. Perfect score: 1.
Ranked probability score
Answers the question: How well did the probability forecast predict the category that the observations fell into?
Range: 0 to 1. Perfect score: 0.
Ranked probability skill score
Answers the question: What is the relative skill of the probabilistic forecast over that of climatology, in terms of getting close to the actual outcome?
Range: minus infinity to 1, 0 indicates no skill when compared to the reference forecast. Perfect score: 1.
Relative value (value score)
Answers the question: For a cost/loss ratio C/L for taking action based on a forecast, what is the relative improvement in economic value between climatalogical and perfect information?
Range: minus infinity to 1. Perfect score: 1.
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