Lower java security setting

Filename font size change

press "Window button + r "

type "control", then enter

 search for "metrics"

do the highlights in the picture below. 

matrix multiplication

kalman filter from student Dave

Methods and scores used for verifying ensemble forecasts

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/EPSverif/scores/scores.html

http://www.eumetcal.org/resources/ukmeteocal/temp/msgcal/www/english/msg/ver_categ_forec/uos2/uos2_ko4.htm

		FCST yes	FCST no	Total
	OBS yes	hits	misses	observed yes
	OBS no	false alarms	correct negatives	observed no
Total		forecast yes	forecast no	total

Root mean square error


Answers the question: What is the magnitude of the forecast errors?
Range: 0 to infinity.  Perfect score: 0.


Equitable threat score



where
Answers the question: How well did the forecast occurrence of events correspond to the actual (observed) occurrence of events?
Range: -1/3 to 1, 0 indicates no skill.   Perfect score: 1.


Bias score


Answers the question: How does the forecast frequency of events compare to the actual (observed) frequency of events?
Range: 0 to infinity.  Perfect score: 1.


Brier score

Answers the question: What is the magnitude of the probability forecast errors?
Range: 0 to 1.  Perfect score: 0.


Brier skill score

Answers the question: What is the relative skill of the probabilistic forecast over that of climatology, in terms of predicting whether or not an event occurred?
Range: minus infinity to 1, 0 indicates no skill when compared to the reference forecast. Perfect score: 1.


Ranked probability score

Answers the question: How well did the probability forecast predict the category that the observations fell into?
Range: 0 to 1.  Perfect score: 0.


Ranked probability skill score 

Answers the question: What is the relative skill of the probabilistic forecast over that of climatology, in terms of getting close to the actual outcome?
Range: minus infinity to 1, 0 indicates no skill when compared to the reference forecast. Perfect score: 1.


 Relative value (value score)

Answers the question: For a cost/loss ratio C/L for taking action based on a forecast, what is the relative improvement in economic value between climatalogical and perfect information?
Range: minus infinity to 1.  Perfect score: 1.

NWP models

The NWP models evaluated are:  

GFS: The U.S. NCEP Global Forecast System;     
FNO: The U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanograpy Center;    
ECM: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts;    
UKM: The United Kingdom Met Office;    
CMC: The Canadian Meteorological Center;    
JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency;    
CDAS: The frozen version of GFS used for the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. 


The regions referred to are:  
G2 (GLB): Globe    
NHX: 20N-80N     
SHX: 20S-80S     
TRO: 20S-20N


Pattern correlations for all NWP models are computed using anomalies respective to a 30-year (1959-1988) climatology of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.

nail gun

Really like to have a nail gun, but feel confused all the time when shopping for them. 
The choices on display in store always seem to be too many that it makes you have no idea of what to choose. So this blog is meant to remove that kind of confusion.
 
Three major types of nail guns: ( usage, thickness and length )

brad : molding
gauge 23 , length [3/8 - 1 1/4 ] inch
gauge 18 , length [5/8 - 2     ] inch

finish : softwood & trim
gauge 16-15,  length [5/8 - 2 1/2] inch 

frame : frame & fence
gauge < 15  , length [2 - 3 1/3] inch

BFF:( brad, finish and frame) sounds like "beef"

gauge : the smaller number, the thicker of nail.