Showing posts with label meteorology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label meteorology. Show all posts

Sunday, December 14, 2014

El Nino and La Nina



El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific.

The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific.

The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected.

In Spanish, the capitalized term "El Niño" refers to the Christ child, Jesus (literal translation "The (male) Child"). La Niña, chosen as the 'opposite' of El Niño, literally means "The (female) Child).

El Niño was so named because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is often noticed around Christmas.[4]

Monday, November 3, 2014

Grid models vs. spectral models



Grid models vs. spectral models

The three dimensions of space can be accounted for in various ways in numerical weather or climate prediction models. Most models are grid models, in which variables are computed at discrete grid points in the horizontal and vertical directions. The model resolution refers to the (horizontal) spacing between gridpoints. The grid spacing is not necessarily equidistant. For instance, some models use a longitude difference as zonal grid spacing, so near the poles the zonal grid spacing becomes zero. In the vertical direction the spacing is usually variable, the model resolution typically is highest just above sea level.

Other models, in particular those whose domain is global, are spectral models (Note 15.H): these transform the variation of some variable (e.g. temperature) with latitude and longitude into a series of waves; the highest wave number retained in the Fourier transform is a measure of the model resolution.

Numerical prediction models are based on the equations of motion (Note 15.G), and these involve many partial derivatives in space. Partial derivatives of wave fields (as used in spectral models) can be calculated exactly, rather than by means of a finite difference approach (used in grid models). This is the main advantage of spectral models. Of course the wave form is converted back into a spatial form after the calculations, in order to analyze the forecasts.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Hurricane forecast models

Hurricane forecast models

Refer to here:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
                        http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

Official Forecasts
These five identifiers represent forecasts issued by NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Weather Prediction Center (formerly Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), and Ocean Prediction Center. While derived from official sources of information, they should NOT be considered to be official.
OFCL Official NHC/CPHC Forecast
OFCI Official NHC/CPHC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
OHPC Official Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Forecast
OOPC Official Ocean Prediction Center Forecast
Dynamical Models
These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve mathematical equations that describe how wind, temperature, and moisture evolve within the atmosphere. Most of these models forecast the weather over the entire globe and are not specifically designed for tropical storm and hurricane forecasting.
AVNO / GFSO Global Forecast System Model Forecast
AVNI / GFSI Previous GFS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
AP## GFS Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 01 to 20)
AEMN GFS Ensemble Mean Forecast
AEMI Previous AEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
CMC Canadian Global Model Forecast
CMCI Previous CMC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COTC U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast
COTI U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COAL U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast, Atlantic Basin
COAI Previous COAMPS-TC Atlantic Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COCE U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast, E. Pacific Basin
COEI Previous COAMPS-TC E. Pacific Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
EGRR / UKX UKMET Model Forecast
EGRI / UKXI Previous UKMET Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
EMX / ECMF ECMWF Model Forecast (rare)
EMXI Previous ECMWF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr (rare)
NAM North American Mesoscale Model Forecast
NAMI Previous NAM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NGPS / NGX U.S. Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast
NGPI / NGXI Previous NOGAPS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NVGM U.S. Navy NAVGEM Model Forecast
NVGI Previous NAVGEM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
Limited-Area Dynamical Models
These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve mathematical equations that describe how wind, temperature, and moisture evolve within the atmosphere. Unlike the "Dynamical Models" above, however, these models forecast the weather only over a small portion of the globe and are specifically developed to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes.
GFDL GFDL Hurricane Model Forecast Track/Intensity
GFDI Previous GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GHMI Previous Intensity-Modified GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GFDT GFDL Forecast Using a Different Vortex Tracking Algorithm
GFTI Previous GFDT Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GFDN Navy-Initialized Version of the GFDL Hurricane Model
GFNI Previous Navy-Initialized GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GFDE Extrapolated GFDL Forecast
HWRF HWRF Hurricane Model Forecast Track/Intensity
HWFI Previous HWRF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
Consensus Models
These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from the average, or consensus, of multiple weather forecast model track and/or intensity forecasts. Simple averaging, weighted averaging, and bias-corrected averaging procedures may be used, depending upon the consensus model in question.
IVCN Variable Intensity Consensus of DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, GHMI, and GFNI Models
GUNA Consensus of AVNI, GFDI, EGRI and NGPI Model Track Forecasts
CGUN Bias-Corrected GUNA Forecast
TCON / TCOE Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, and HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TCOA Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, GHMI, and HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TCCN Bias-Corrected TCON Forecast
TVCN Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, EMXI, NGPI, GHMI, HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TVCE Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, EMXI, NGPI, GHMI, GFNI, HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TVCA Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, EMXI, GHMI, GFNI, HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TVCC Bias-Corrected TVCN Forecast
RYOC / MYOC Forecaster-Generated Consensus Guidance (rare)
Statistical and Statistical-Dynamical Models
These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve statistical equations that describe how a tropical storm or hurricane moves and/or changes intensity in response to climatology and/or present and forecast weather conditions in its proximity. These models are less complex than the "Dynamical Models" and "Limited-Area Dynamical Models" described above; however, many of them are as skillful, if not more skillful, than the more complex models.
A98E NHC-98 Track Model (old, unreliable)
BAMD Deep-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast
BAMM Medium-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast
BAMS Shallow-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast
CLIP 72-hr Climatology and Persistence Track Forecast
CLP5 120-hr Climatology and Persistence Track Forecast
LBAR Limited Area Barotropic Model Track Forecast (old, unreliable)
LGEM Logistical Growth Error Model Intensity Forecast
SHFR 72-hr SHIFOR Model Intensity Forecast
SHF5 120-hr SHIFOR Model Intensity Forecast
DSHF 120-hr Decay SHIFOR Model Intensity Forecast
SHIP SHIPS Model Intensity Forecast
DSHP Decay SHIPS Model Intensity Forecast
DRCL DeMaria Climatology and Persistence Model Intensity Forecast
MRCL McAdie Climatology and Persistence Model Intensity Forecast
RI## Rapid Intensification Aid (## = 25, 30, 35, 40)
Experimental Models (HFIP Stream 1.5)
From time to time, additional models in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, or HFIP, quasi-operational "Stream 1.5" may appear within the guidance products. The identifiers below represent forecasts from models that NHC forecasters are currently evaluating for possible future use in actual NHC forecast operations. The most up-to-date information on these experimental products may always be found at the HFIP Home Page.
FIM9 Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model Forecast
FM9I Previous FIM9 Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
CTCX Experimental U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast
CXTI Previous Experimental COAMPS-TC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
HWFH Experimental NOAA/HRD HWRF Forecast
HWHI Previous Experimental NOAA/HRD HWRF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GP## GFDL Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 00 to 09)
GPMN GFDL Ensemble Mean Forecast
GPMI Previous GFDL Ens. Mean Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
HHYC HWRF with HYCOM Ocean Model
HHYI Previous HWRF with HYCOM Ocean Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
HW## HWRF Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 00 to 20)
HWMN HWRF Ensemble Mean Forecast
HWMI Previous HWRF Ens. Mean Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
UWN4 University of Wisconsin NMS Model Forecast
UW4I Previous UW NMS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
TV15 Consensus of Available HFIP Stream 1.5 Model Forecasts
MMSE FSU Multimodel Superensemble
SPC3 Statistical Prediction of Intensity Forecast (six members)
Early Versus Late Models
The National Hurricane Center and other official tropical cyclone forecast centers make use of two different forms of dynamical model guidance during the forecast process: "early" and "late" models. Numerical models are typically run four times per day: 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. These times correspond to 8 pm, 2 am, 8 am, and 2 pm EDT, respectively. However, National Hurricane Center official forecasts are issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. These times correspond to 11 pm, 5 am, 11 am, and 5 pm EDT, respectively. Ideally, model forecasts from the 0000 UTC cycle would be available to help make the 0300 UTC forecast (for example); however, as modern numerical weather prediction models typically require several hours to complete a given forecast cycle, this is often not possible.
To alleviate this, model forecasts from the previous cycle, or 1800 UTC in our current example, are shifted forward in time by 6 hr. This results in what is known as an interpolated, or "early", model that is available at 0000 UTC for forecasters to use when preparing the 0300 UTC forecast. The actual 0000 UTC model forecast, arriving after the 0300 UTC forecast must be made, is known as a "late" model forecast. As you might expect, "late" model forecasts thus form the basis for the subsequent "early" model forecasts. In the lists above, "early" models are those whose designators end in an I (e.g., AVNI, CMCI, etc.). "Late" models have no such notation. Please note that all consensus, statistical, and statistical-dynamical guidance is classified as "early" guidance and is often derived from "early" model output.

Disclaimer: The data displayed here are informational only and should NOT be used for making life and death decisions. Always take the word of official sources - the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office - when preparing for any potential storm impact. If anything on these plots causes confusion, disregard the information in its entirety. The availability, timeliness, and reliability of these data are not guaranteed, and no liability is implied or expressed by your use of this website.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

hurricane intensity and track.

Reference : http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/help/unit.html.en

1. Unit of Pressure and Wind

This page summarizes the unit of pressure and wind used in this web site.

Hecto Pascal (hPa)

Hecto Pascal is a unit for pressure, and, in this web site, used mainly for representing the central pressure of a typhoon. In Japan, the unit of "millibar" (mb) was used through November 1992, but since December 1992, the unit of "hectopascal" (hPa) has been used to comply with the International System of Units. Conversion between those two units is 1hPa = 1mb, however, so the value itself is the same as before.

Knot (kt)

Knot is a unit for speed. One knot means a speed of moving one nautical mile (nm) in one hour. Knot is used for representing the maximum wind speed at the center of a typhoon, or a movement speed of a typhoon on this website. Because 1nm = 1.852km, 1kt = 1.852km/h = 0.5144m/s. Roughly speaking, halving the knot makes the speed in meter per second, while doubling it makes the speed in kilometer per hour.
By the way, Japan Meteorological Agency publishes conversion tables of motion speed, wind speed and distance. This site refers to these conversion tables.

2. Classification of Typhoons

The Classification of Intensity of Typhoons

The intensity of a tropical cyclone is classified by the maximum sustained wind (10-min mean) according to World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The following table summarizes categories for tropical cyclones. Here "Tropical Depression" is a tropical cyclone weaker than a typhoon, and a tropical cyclone stronger than a typhoon, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) classification has four levels (previously five) and international classification has three levels.
Intensity Class Maximum Sustained Wind (10-min Mean) International Category Class
knots (kt) meters per second (m/s) kilometers per hour (km/h)
Low Pressure Area central position cannot be accurately identified Low Pressure Area -
Tropical Depression - 33 - 17 - 62 Tropical Depression (TD) 2
Typhoon 34 - 47 18 - 24 63 - 88 Tropical Storm (TS) 3
48 - 63 25 - 32 89 - 118 Severe Tropical Storm (STS) 4
Strong Typhoon 64 - 84 33 - 43 119 - 156 Typhoon (TY) or Hurricane 5
Very Strong Typhoon 85 - 104 44 - 53 157 - 192
Violent Typhoon 105 - 54 - 193 -
Note that the definition of "typhoon" is different between the Japanese standard and the international standard. A tropical storm with the wind speed of more than 34 kt is called a "typhoon" in Japan, while in the international standard, that with the wind speed of more than 64 kt is called a "typhoon." Tropical cyclones in the world are called by different names in each basin, such as a "typhoon" and a "hurricane," but the standard to be called by such names is the same : more than 64 kt of wind.

The Classification of Intensity of Typhoons and Hurricanes (USA Standard)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other US meteorological organizations use Saffir-Simpson Scale to classify tropical storms stronger than the hurricane (or typhoon) intensity based on the maximum sustained wind (1-min mean).
International Category Category (Saffir-Simpson Scale) Maximum Sustained Wind (1-min Mean)
knots (kt) meters per second (m/s) kilometers per hour (km/h)
Typhoon / Hurricane 1 64 - 82 33 - 42 119 - 153
Typhoon / Hurricane 2 83 - 95 43 - 48 154 - 177
Typhoon / Hurricane 3 96 - 113 49 - 58 178 - 209
Typhoon / Hurricane 4 114 - 135 59 - 69 210 - 249
Typhoon / Hurricane 5 135- 70- 249-
A typhoon with maximum sustained surface winds greather than or equal to 130 knots (approximately Category 5) is called a "super typhoon," and a hurricane of Category 3 and above is called a "major hurricane." A tropical cyclone weaker than Category 1 is not a "typhoon" in the international standard, but may be classified as a "typhoon" in the Japanese standard.
In mainland China and Hong Kong, a typhoon with maximum sustained surface winds greather than or equal to 100 knots are called Super Typhoon. However, maximum sustained winds are measured differently in mainland China and Hong Kong, where the former uses 2-min mean and the latter uses 10-min mean.
In addition to maximum wind, maximum gust is also used to represent the strength of winds in a shorter time scale. Japan Meteorological Agency defines maximum gust as the average of 3 seconds (the average of 12 measurements by the frequency of 0.25 seconds), in comparison to the average of 10 minutes for maximum wind. The ration of maximum gust divided by maximum wind is called "gust factor" and it is known to take some values between 1.5 and 2. This means that 50m/s maximum gust could happen within the storm-wind circle of 25m/s maximum wind.
For other regions than Japan and the United States, please refer to the classifiction of tropical cyclones in the world.

The Classification of Size of Typhoons

The size of a typhoon is classified by the radius of the area in which the wind speed exceeds 15 m/s. The intensity and size represents different aspect of a typhoon. That is, we could have a strong but not large typhoon, and also a large but not strong typhoon.
Size Class Radius of the area with the wind speed of 15m/s and above
Large 500km - 799km
Super 800km-

Effect of Typhoons and Typhoon Classes

Before 2000, JMA has been using additional typhoon classes for intensity and size. The intensity class had "weak" (which corresponds to Tropical Storm) and "middle" (which corresponds to Severe Tropical Storm), and the size class had "very small," "small," and "middle." These classes, however, might have given unreasonable relief to the people's attitude, such as "this typhoon is OK because it's very small and weak."
In addition, these typhoon classes were regarded as one reason for a big accident at a river on 1999, when a weak tropical depression caused heavy rain resulted in more than 10 people died of increased water level. Difference between typhoons and tropical depressions is only in terms of winds, and it has nothing to do with rains, but the expression of "weak" might have given different impression for preparedness. Based on this reflection, these classes are removed after 2000.



Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Methods and scores used for verifying ensemble forecasts

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/EPSverif/scores/scores.html

http://www.eumetcal.org/resources/ukmeteocal/temp/msgcal/www/english/msg/ver_categ_forec/uos2/uos2_ko4.htm




FCST yes FCST no  Total
OBS yes hits misses observed yes
OBS no false alarms correct negatives observed no
Total forecast yes forecast no total



Root mean square error

Equation for root mean square error
Answers the question: What is the magnitude of the forecast errors?
Range: 0 to infinity.  Perfect score: 0.


Equitable threat score


Equation for equitable threat score
where Equation for hits due to random chance
Answers the question: How well did the forecast occurrence of events correspond to the actual (observed) occurrence of events?
Range: -1/3 to 1, 0 indicates no skill.   Perfect score: 1.


Bias score

Equation for bias
Answers the question: How does the forecast frequency of events compare to the actual (observed) frequency of events?
Range: 0 to infinity.  Perfect score: 1.


Brier score
Expansion of Brier Score
Answers the question: What is the magnitude of the probability forecast errors?
Range: 0 to 1.  Perfect score: 0.


Brier skill score
Equation for Brier skill score
Answers the question: What is the relative skill of the probabilistic forecast over that of climatology, in terms of predicting whether or not an event occurred?
Range: minus infinity to 1, 0 indicates no skill when compared to the reference forecast. Perfect score: 1.


Ranked probability score
ranked probability score formula
Answers the question: How well did the probability forecast predict the category that the observations fell into?
Range: 0 to 1.  Perfect score: 0.


Ranked probability skill score 
Equation for ranked probability skill score
Answers the question: What is the relative skill of the probabilistic forecast over that of climatology, in terms of getting close to the actual outcome?
Range: minus infinity to 1, 0 indicates no skill when compared to the reference forecast. Perfect score: 1.


 Relative value (value score)
Value score
Answers the question: For a cost/loss ratio C/L for taking action based on a forecast, what is the relative improvement in economic value between climatalogical and perfect information?
Range: minus infinity to 1.  Perfect score: 1.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Met words

adiabatic : 绝热 relating to or denoting a process or condition in which heat does not
                 enter or leave the system concerned.
advection : 平流  the transfer of heat or matter by the flow of a fluid, especially horizontally
                  in the atmosphere or the sea.
analogous : 类似 comparable in certain respects, typically in a way that makes
                  clearer the nature of the things compared.
ambient : 环境
anelastic : 滞弹性 quasi-Boussinesq approximation. i.e.,
         assuming that the mass weighted three-dimensional 
         divergence is zero.  
anomaly correction : correlation between (F-C) and (A-C), which are anomaly
        from climatology.  F: forecast ,  A: analysis ,   C: climatology
baric : 气压
centrifugal : 离心 moving or tending to move away from a center.
convective mass flux : an average vertical transport of mass over for a field of
         cumulus clouds or thermal.
cross section : In weather analysis and forecasting, a graphic representation of a
             "vertical surface" in the atmosphere, along a given horizontal line
             or path, and extending from the earth's surface to a given altitude.
             ( vertical cross-section )
           Eg: Model Forecast Time-Height Vertical Cross-Section 
dispersion : 分散 the action or process of distributing things or people over 
                  a wide area 
divergence : In vector calculus, divergence is a vector operator that measures 
                 the magnitude of a vector field's source or sink at a given point, in 
                 terms of a signed scalar. More technically, the divergence represents 
                 the volume density of the outward flux of a vector field from an 
                 infinitesimal volume around a given point. 
\operatorname{div}\,\mathbf{F} = \nabla\cdot\mathbf{F}
=\frac{\partial U}{\partial x}
+\frac{\partial V}{\partial y}
+\frac{\partial W}{\partial z
}.
entropy : 化學热力学中所指的[3],是一種測量在動力學方面
       不能做能量總數,也就是當總體的熵增加,其做功能力也下降,
       熵的量度正是能量退化的指標。熵亦被用於計算一個系統中的失序現象,
       也就是計算該系統混亂的程度。 
       熵的概念是由德國物理學克勞修斯於1865年所提出。克氏定義
       一個熱力學系統熵的增減:在一個可逆性程序裡,被用在恆溫的總數(δQ),
      並可以公式表示為:
        \Delta S = \frac{Q}{T}
       克勞修斯對變數S予以「熵」英语entropy)一名,希臘語源意
       為「內向」,亦即「一個系統不受外部干擾時往內部最穩定
       狀態發展的特性」[4]
geocentric : 地心 having or representing the earth as the center, as in former
         astronomical systems.
geographic : 地理
geopotential : 位势
geostrophic : 地转 relating to or denoting the component of a wind or current that arises 
             from a balance between pressure gradients and Coriolis forces 
geostrophy :  地转
graupel : Heavily rimed snow particles, often called snow pellets; often
                   indistinguishable from very small soft hail except for the size convention
                   that hail must have a diameter greater than 5 mm.
Sometimes distinguished by shape into conical, hexagonal, and lump (irregular) graupel.

gravitational : 引力
gravity : 重力 
gravitational potential :  is equal to the work (energy transferred) per unit mass that is 
        done by the force of gravity to move an object to a fixed reference location. 
       The reference location, where the potential is zero, is by 
        convention infinitely far away from any mass, resulting in a negative potential 
        at any finite distance.
Hecto Pascal (hPa) :  a unit for pressure, and, in this web site, used mainly for
             representing the central pressure of a typhoon. In Japan, the unit of
            "millibar" (mb) was used through November 1992, but since December 1992,
             the unit of "hectopascal" (hPa) has been used to comply with the International
            System of Units. Conversion between those two units is 1hPa = 1mb,
            however, so the value itself is the same as before.
homogeneous : 同质 of the same kind; alike.
hydrometeor : 水凝   an atmospheric phenomenon or entity involving water or water vapor,
             such as rain or a cloud.
inhibition : 抑制
isobar : A line of equal or constant pressure; an isopleth of pressure.
isobaric : 等压
iostherm : A line of equal or constant temperature.
isoheight / contour line : (Also called contour, isohypse, isoheight.) A line of
            constant elevation above a certain reference level (usually mean sea level) on a
            previously defined surface, which may be the earth's surface,
           a constant-pressure surface, an isentropic surface, etc.
iso :
isotropic : 各向同性 (of an object or substance) having a physical property that has
              the same value when measured in different directions.

isobaric :  等压 equal or constant pressure, with respect to either space or time.
isotherm : 等温线 equal temperature
isotropic : 各向同性
kinematic : (noun.) movement
Knot : a unit for speed. One knot means a speed of moving one nautical mile (nm) in one hour.
           Knot is used for representing the maximum wind speed at the center of a typhoon,
           or a movement speed of a typhoon on this website. Because 1nm = 1.852km,
          1kt = 1.852km/h = 0.5144m/s. Roughly speaking, halving the knot makes the speed
           in meter per second, while doubling it makes the speed in kilometer per hour.
linear : we are estimating a value for intercept (a) and the slop (b) that are raised only to
            the power 1. ( unbiased ) if we repeat the estimation with new samples, we
            will likely find different values for b.  If we do so, we can then calculate the
            average of all of these bs. If it is true that the average of the bs is equal to the
            population's true beta (standardized b), then the estimator is said to be unbiased;
           similarly for a, the intercept term.
LTE : local thermodynamic equilibrium
mean sea level : (Abbreviated MSL; popularly called sea level.) The arithmetic mean of
           hourly heights observed over some specified period. In the United States, mean
           sea level is defined as the mean height of the surface of the sea for all stages
            of the tide over a 19-year period. Selected values of mean sea level serve
           as the sea level datum for all elevation surveys in the United States. In 
           meteorology, mean sea level is used as the reference surface for all altitudes in upper-
           atmospheric work; in aviation it is the level above which altitude is measured by a  
           pressure altimeter. Along with mean high water, mean low water, and mean lower low 
           water, mean sea level is a type of tidal datum ( standard ).
moist : 潮湿
occluded front :  http://www.athensgaweather.com/meteorology-101-pressure-fronts/
perpendicular : 垂直 at an angle of 90° to a given line, plane, or surface.pendicular : 相垂直
predictor : x in regression equation y = ax + b
predictand : y in regression equation y = ax + b 
prognostic : 前兆serving to predict the likely outcome of a disease or 
           ailment; of or relating to a medical prognosis. 
quasi : seemingly; apparently but not really.
quasi-geostropic : 准地转
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: QPF:
            The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (abbreviated QPF) is the expected
            amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a
            specified area. A QPF will be created when precipitation amounts reaching a
            minimum threshold are expected during the forecast's valid period.
radian : 弧度 a unit of angle,  equal to an angle at the center of a circle
             whose arc is equal in length to the radius.  s = r . theta
radiance : 1. light or heat as emitted or reflected by something.
                2. the flux of radiation emitted per unit solid angle in a given direction
                   by a unit area of a source.
regression : a measure of the relation between the mean value of one variable
           (e.g., output) and corresponding values of other variables (e.g., time and cost).
regression analysis : In statistics, it is a statistical process for estimating the relationships
             among variables. It includes many techniques for modeling and analyzing
            several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable
            and one or more independent variables. More specifically, regression analysis
            helps one understand how the typical value of the dependent variable
            (or 'criterion variable') changes when any one of the independent variables is
            varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed.
sea level pressure : The atmospheric pressure at mean sea level, either directly          measured or, most commonly, empirically determined from the observed
         station pressure. In regions where the earth's surface is above sea level, it is
         standard observational practice to reduce the observed surface pressure to the
        value that would exist at a point at sea level directly below if air of a temperature
        corresponding to that actually present at the surface were present all the way
        down to sea level. In actual practice, the mean  temperature for the preceding
        12 hours is employed, rather than the current temperature. This
        "reduction of pressure to sea level" is responsible for many anomalies
         in the pressure field in mountainous areas on the surface synoptic chart.
standardized coefficient : Before solving a multiple regression problem, all variables
         (independent and dependent) can be standardized. Each variable can be
          standardized by subtracting its mean from each of its values and then
         dividing these new values by the standard deviation of the variable.
         Standardizing all variables in a multiple regression yields standardized
         regression coefficients that show the change in the dependent variable
         measured in standard deviations.
stratification : 分层 demixing, lamination
thermal :  
thermodynamics :  热力学 the branch of physical science that deals with the relations
            between heat and other forms of energy (such as mechanical, electrical,
           or chemical energy), and, by extension, of the relationships between all forms of
           energy.
trajectory : 轨迹 the path followed by a projectile flying or an object moving under
                the action of given forces.


Greek alphabet:
Letter  Name   
Α α      alpha
Β β      beta
Γ γ      gamma
Δ δ      delta
Ε ε      epsilon
Ζ ζ      zeta
Η η      eta
Θ θ      theta
Ι ι        iota
Κ κ      kappa
Λ λ      lambda
Μ μ      mu
Ν ν      nu
Ξ ξ      xi
Ο ο      omicron
Π π      pi
Ρ ρ       rho
Σ σ/ς    sigma
Τ τ       tau
Υ υ      upsilon
Φ φ      phi
Χ χ      chi
Ψ ψ     psi
Ω ω     omega 

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

radiosonde : rawinsonde , dropsonde

A radiosonde (Sonde is French and German for probe) is a battery-powered telemetry instrument package carried into the atmosphere usually by a weather balloon that measures various atmospheric parameters and transmits them by radio to a ground receiver. Radiosondes may operate at a radio frequency of 403 MHz or 1680 MHz.

Special radiosonde: 

1. rawinsonde: A radiosonde whose position is tracked as it ascends to give wind speed and direction information is called a rawinsonde ("radar wind -sonde").[1][2] Most radiosondes have radar reflectors and are technically rawinsondes.

2. dropsonde: A radiosonde that is dropped from an airplane and falls, rather than being carried by a balloon is called a dropsonde.

Radiosondes are an essential source of meteorological data, and hundreds are launched all over the world daily.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

sigma vertical coordinate

Two links below seem to on the same page. 

http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Sigma_vertical_coordinate

http://www.met.tamu.edu/class/metr452/models/2001/vertres.html

sigma vertical coordinate

A vertical coordinate for atmospheric models defined as pressure normalized by its surface value, or as the difference in pressure and its value at the top of the model atmosphere normalized by the surface value of this difference.
 
Thus, σ = (p - pT)/(pS - pT
 
where p is pressure, and the subscripts T and S stand for the top and the ground surface values of the model atmosphere, respectively. 
 
pS pressure on the ground surface
pT pressure on the top of atmosphere
 
Range: [ 0 , 1 ]

Benefits:
With the sigma coordinate, the lowest coordinate surface follows the model terrain, resulting in significant simplification of the equations compared to pressure or to an unmodified geometric height coordinate.  
 
 
What does "normalized" mean???
normalized : multiply (a series, function, or item of data) by a factor that makes the norm or some associated quantity such as an integral equal to a desired value (usually 1).

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

liquid water path

liquid water path

A measure of the weight of the liquid water droplets in the atmosphere above a unit surface area on the earth, given in units of kg m-2, for example.

The liquid water path may be defined as
ams2001glos-Le22
where 
ρair is the density of the (wet) air,
and the integral is from the bottom to the top of the column.